By Shreya Gupta
The feeling of déjà vu is certainly real, as my phone screen timely reminded me through my notifications whilst I heard some outbursts of horror and dismay from adjacent rooms. Upon hearing the results of the historical election, the first person that popped into my mind was my close friend living in North Carolina, and then Xi Jinping… quite the strange transition. A fear of the unknown got me thinking about the current state of US-China relations, and its future trajectory during a Trump presidency. Biden’s anti One-China policy statements and Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan certainly exacerbated a rapid decline in US-China relations, but specific tactics in resolving tensions remain quite cryptic. This approach of ‘strategic ambiguity’ would have likely persisted in a Harris administration, but little has been said by either her or Trump about possible strategies. Whilst opposition to China is remarkably bipartisan, they remain divided in how to actively respond to China’s rise.
If Trump’s 2018 trade war is any indication of his tactics, provoking China is likely to be on his foreign policy agenda. Xi’s recent congratulations to Trump in winning the election called for a stable and cooperative relationship; possibly a response to Trump’s statement to the Wall Street Journal that he would impose tariffs if Taiwan’s security was infringed upon. What scared me the most was when I read Trump’s remark that Xi “respects me and he knows I’m crazy” (well, at least he’s self-aware). “Crazy” can be open to interpretation, but for me this simply means unpredictable and volatile – neither of which are preferable when discussing global security.
It is highly probable that US-China relations will worsen under a Trump presidency, especially considering how the current environment in the South China Sea is a global flashpoint. Asian-Pacific security has come under great threat since Trump’s re-election was announced due to concerns over his ‘America First’ agenda and plans to cut back foreign aid. This would lay the perfect conditions for China’s growth as a regional, and possibly global, hegemon as Asian Pacific nations – particularly the Philippines – would no longer be able to defend themselves against China without US support.
I think the most contentious issue, however, will be the defence of Taiwan. Trump’s nature and personality as a bold leader could deter Xi from using coercive tactics in Taiwan. However, the US defense budget may say otherwise. While military investment is increasing under Biden (as seen through his proposals for a staggering $850 billion for the year of 2025), Trump’s recent statements that Taiwan should pay for US protection suggests a different approach of an ‘America First’ policy where foreign interventions are sidelined.
Regarding general foreign policy, Trump’s attention will certainly shift from Ukraine to China, which entails cuts in NATO defense spending. In 2018, Trump shifted his attention to China from the global war on terror, suggesting how this global rivalry seems to be of greater significance for him. This could have disastrous consequences for the wider world where US-China foreign policy will have implications for both Russian expansive aims as well as the EU’s role, which will need to step up as a global power to replace the increasingly unpredictable transatlantic alliance.
So in conclusion, there is no conclusion. There may have been one if Harris had won but, unless I am dreaming (I hope I am), Trump’s whopping win suggests this was not the outcome. Trump’s foreign policy towards China could realistically go either way, but what is not as uncertain is Trump’s desire to compete and win. Whether it be through more severe trade wars or a military escalation in the South China Sea, relations will worsen, and it is hard to know whether these two nations will ever be able to co-exist peacefully again.
This foreign policy topic doesn’t come down to ideology or political party, but rather to the two most prominent leaders today: Xi Jinping and Donald Trump.
